Double-Dip Recession

I read from CNN that the crisis that we are having today is chillingly close to 1929 economic crash. There are so many similarities. 

Continuous financial and economic shocks causes the market to nose dive. Fortunately there are some good indicators that help uplift the bloodied market. Good US job numbers and company profits put positive tone to PSE. Almost all of the stocks that I put on my watch list are green and smiling. This make me think, are we going to experience double-dip recession? The index today says no.

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I am on the watch mode today. I am planning to sell two of my holdings to transfer the fund to BEL :-). I will be holding this stock until next year (remember casino?). I think the price now is a good entry point.

As I am checking BEL, I found out that it has also some interests in APC which did not have a good quarter and LOTO (I am still verifying this).

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Warren Buffet is buying - why fear? 

S&P Downgrade US Credit Rating to AA+

S&P downgraded US credit rating to AA+ which affected global stock market. Atleast, the good news is Moody's and Fitch still rates US as AAA. Moody's on the other hand lowered its outlook on US debt to "negative" which means it can lower its rating in a year or two.
What's the difference between AA+ and AAA? Almost nothing :-)
Now US government are saying that S&P made a mistake in downgrading its credit rating. So far, S&P is winning as reaction put pressure on investor to sell. But it is too early to know where this current crisis will bring us.

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According to the news, Wall Street already knows about the US credit rating downgrade even before its announcement. They don't want surprises - lucky guys. They also blaming Timothy Geithner for the crisis and Timothy's answer is - "I will resign after the debt ceiling is over".

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This is the time that we need strong stomach. Prices are down. PSE is in the red zone. Of course, if you were able to get out before the US rating downgrade - you will be smiling by now. 

Maybe a day or two would be a good time to buy. Although double dip recession is now flying around - but take it from Warren Buffet - he doesn't believe there will be a crisis in the near future.

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Another good news is the plan of European Central Bank (ECB) to buy bonds. This will ease pressure to Spain and Italy which now pulling down European Union's growth. Although EU is very slow on reacting to crisis - still this is a good step on their part. Maybe they should start learning from still frightening global economic situation.

Debt Ceiling and Gold

Debt ceiling - now that US congress voted on it what's next? Expert says that investors would start looking at other economic catalyst such as job reports. The news is grim. Looks like we will have a 'ghostly' August.
I like what one of the US congressmen said - 'white house is systematically broken'. Maybe Obama tend to loose control when pressure on him is on the level which other presidents handled perfectly (or not so perfect). But the end result of the impasse on debt ceiling made the Chinese happy as they bought most of the US debts.

Gold, gold, gold - I made some coffee money in MA. Better than nothing. I bough some PNB, SLI, LIB and BEL stocks. Of course, I still have my MP-Ayyy...

Bought MPI Today

I bought 2,000 MPI shares today. I think it is still one of few stocks that are safe for long term. It is a defensive stock and even if you missed or was not able to sell at the peak, you will not be worried. The only thing that sometimes frustrate me is that the ascent of this stack is so slow. Even almost all of the stocks are shooting up - it is still crawling on the way up but diving on the way down. But I believe MPI will have its time - so I better stick with it.

My favorite stocks now are CYBR and ELI. I don't know why but my mind is telling me to follow my instinct.  

BEL Price - Not Yet

I am still hoping that BEL would slide down a bit for me to start buying. I think 4.60 would be the best price to enter. 
ELI and CYBER still holding to yesterday's closing price. But volume is low. They are still for the risk takers. Although, I am tempted to buy today but small voice in my head tells me to wait until tomorrow. Maybe he is right?...

After Japan, now its Bahrain. More OFWs are now coming back to Philippines. Without prospect of getting a good job - they will become one of the many problems the government need to address. Hopefully, PiNOY would be able to find the correct formula to alleviate the pressure our country is experiencing due to international economic turmoil brought upon by middle east crisis and Japan natural disaster. 

MPI next stop - 3.20!

Sell or Buy

It's been a while since I last added entry to my blog. I been busy with work and doing some interesting stuff but still trading... and still hoping.

Tragedy sometimes really pours like rain. Middle east crisis (those freedom fighters, democracy lovers), New Zealand earthquake and now Japan earthquake and tsunami. I feel nervousness in the air. I feel that market will still slide down - question is why it is not as fast as I think it should be? Maybe, investor think that the economic impact of these events can be compartmentalize. Meaning, the effect can be contained within the affected countries. Or maybe, they don't realize yet the possible impact of Japan's crisis to the world economy. 

Japan is the 3rd largest economy, only second now to China. According to some analyst, electronic industry will be affected in our country (I am not sure how it will affect those kind and sweet Japayukis and Bilog). Some politicians says that Japan soon be cutting back aids to us (those crazy politicians...). In simple word, Philippines will be affected (we are always affected when other countries hit some problems).

But as investor, I think it is a great opportunity for me to look at my portfolio. Maybe its time to buy those that I think would be flying comes better days. So, I bought CYBR and ELI then cross my fingers.

Good News and Bad News

A couple of bad news and good news:

Bad News:
1. Emerson Lozano, Ernani Sensil and Venson Evangilista carnapping incidents.
2. Buendia bus bombing.
3. Makati gondola accident.
4. Flooding in the southern part of the country.
5. Dr. Gerry Ortega murder in Palawan.



Good News:
Pinoy - Filipino of the year!

I thought rabbit is a good sign that is why it was adopted as a playboy sign? How many times that we see women in sexy bunny costume made men salivate and tickled they imaginative side. But in the contrary, what happening in the first month of the year of the rabbit is so disgusting! I hate admit it, but we Filipinos are becoming like a rabbit - private and a bit introvert. There are a lot of things happening around us and sometimes we just turn a blind eye or maybe we lost interest on things that are everyday part of our existence - carnappings, kidnapping, murder, gun for hire, corruption in the government, politicking, bombing, police brutality, terrorism, PUV fare increase, gas price, traffic, drugs, religions and money.

I hope rabbit's calm personality would give us time to think and be a better person.


Bad things that are happening in our country is a product of how we lost control of the situation. These events would  definitely affect our economy. Killings and carnapping only highlight the need to improve our security. Bombing is the failure of the intelligence community. It is frustrating that other country has a better intelligence gathering capability here in Philippines than the NBI, PNP and AFP combine. Countries such as Australia, New Zealand and US released warning to its citizens of the possible terrorist attack to the Philippines before Buendia bus bombing. The only answer from Malacanang  - is that - the warning is not directed to a bus bombing! What a bunch of morons! (sorry for may French).
I just hope that those who are tasked to do this job would step up and bring those who perpetrate this terroristic act to the bar of justice.

We should have a good and capable police force and not a 40-year old PO1 who breaks the law, not a general that only wanted to acquire millions in the promise that he will get reprieve by giving back half of what he plundered, not a politician who look good in front of the camera but raking up millions in kickbacks, not people who look for killers to murder an innocent commentator by misleading a killer that the people he is about to silent is a rapist, not bishop that is too moral to ask women to go against HR bill, not extremist that will do everything to push the country into chaos just to get the peace they are dreaming of, not people that will ask for protection money for company to be able to conduct their business, not companies that doesn't mind that destruction that they are doing to the environment.

As predicted, La Nina is bringing rains to our country. There are flooding in the southern part of the Philippines which claimed so many lives. The flooding and lost of lives only shows the un-preparedness of the government to handle this kind of situation and of course, poor governance of the people we voted to the public office.

Gondola accident, I think would not affect market. Only career of politicians who did not do their job to police unscrupulous contractors.


Lastly, maybe what is happening in January is just spill-over of 2010. Maybe February 2011 will be the start of something brilliant!

Lots of red

Market is down. I am not really sure how deep will be the correction. Today is the second day of descent. Hopefully, tomorrow the bleeding will stop.

I tried to buy MPI today at 3.71 but my post was not hit. So far, MPI is holding to its support. Same story with AGI. It was down today. 

BEL is another story. I really like this stock. It's like AGI when it was trending up from 4 to 10-ish pesos. Maybe 7.50 pesos will be a good TP for this stock.

 

It will be a good day today

Will PSEi follow the lead of foreign indexes? Of course! Actually, I can see GREEN waiting in the corner.
I think, we will definitely see a bigger gain today. The market surge was due to Portugal bond auction. Next will be Spain's turn.
Go PSEi!

Updated-10:26pm

It was a modest gain. Not what I expected. I thought PSEi will have a double digit today. The good thing is, it's still positive. Courtesy of property sector.
AGI added a few cents while MPI sheds a bit. I am not worried as I am long with MPI. Maybe tommorow I should buy some MPI.

CYBR why oh why?

CYBR and European Woes

CYBR really blessed those who happened to buy at lows. I can't really believed that RSA can make every stocks fly high! So, please buy some MPI :-)
Speaking of MPI - I think it is still holding its place. It was down yesterday but now it is making a comeback. I don't see any resistance breakage this week or next week (unless European woes will be resolved). AGI is still good as it was never fall below 10.50. I would recommend a hold for both stocks.

I read that Europe will be the dark horse for 2011. Currently, it's the European problems that pulling down the market. Portugal is the main concern of European union. I hope they will be able to find solution fast. I don't want to see red this year.

CYBR, CYBER, CYBR

I really, really envy those who profited on CYBR. It is only 0.5-ish 6 days ago and now it hit 1 peso level! Congrats to those traders who stick it out with CYBR :)


Re my portfolio, I think AGI is now in consolidating mode and gathering momentum for the next uptrend. MPI is trying to breakout. I can see that it will hit the jackpot next week.

Day, Medium or Long Trading

I think PSE has a good start for 2011. I believe we will have a good market this year.  Of course, there will be correction along the way as other healthy market does. If you are not risk savvy investor - it is time to accumulate on weakness and do some medium or long term tradings. Doing that will give a higher return instead of being a Tsupitero. But if you want excitement - then by all means, day trade. I know how exciting it is to be a Tsupitero. Especially, when you see your portfolio in green and earn thousand of pesos in just a couple of days. The downside is when you put your money in a wrong stocks and was not able to get out because your brain doesn't agree with you. When your stubborn self is hoping for a rally that you know will never come. When you are down 50% and agree with me that you should long instead. But if you learn from it - then you are still not a loser (almost). It is better to lose 50% of your portfolio and still have the guts to stand up and do better instead of losing 5% and accept the defeat. I think - trading is like learning how to walk. Most of the time you make a wrong turn and smack your head a little but as you grow up you learn to veer away from it. As they said - it is better to stumbled down than not to take the first steps.

I still have my AGI and MPI. I added 1,000 shares of MPI today. I can see MPI benefiting from toll increase which will be completed on April this year. 300% will bring a lot of money to MPI.  

MPI Acquires Additional Stakes in Citra:
MPI acquires addition stakes in Citra through MPTC which will result in 2.56% ownership of the company. MPI goal is to increase its stake to 33% in Skyway Project. Citra is concession holder for the Metro Manila Skyway Project.