PSEi Correction

Traders are now cashing in on their gains after PSE punched through 8K. That's include me :-). Sold 50% of my DMC stocks which gained some coffee money but I already received the 48 cents dividend. Waiting for this stock to go back to 10 Pesos level. 

The government did not accept the EU grant of almost 280 million Euro. I am not sure if that is a good idea as the money can be used to fund basic services which will benefit the poor. But if the government can generate more money by going after big tax evaders, then I don't think we will need help from other country.

Reading 'My Family's Slave' by Alex Tizon. A Pulitzer prize-winning journalist and the author of Big Little Man: In Search of My Asian Self. The story revolve around the family's house helper (they call her Lola) and his family. I think most of Filipinos can relate to this story as most of us knows a house helper or have one. But I think Alex family treatment of 'Lola' is more of a slave rather that part of the family. Some commented that somehow the author contributed to this treatment which I agree. If you what to read more about this story, you can check this site - https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/06/lolas-story/524490/.

8K and Beyond...

Is the sell in May and go away not true anymore? Are you seeing 8K in the horizon? Is the PSE behaving like an unpredictable mother nature? Are we going to see diversion to normal cycle where the weak hands prevail in May? Should we stay instead of going away? Surely we will know next week.

There a lot of going on in terms of economic development. There are a lot of infrastructure building along major highways in Metro Manila. Although, airport construction in Davao might not push through but most of the earmarked projects seems to be going as planned. 

Some people who helped the president during election is getting some good share of the opportunities. Dennis Uy gets provisional license to build resort casino in Cebu worth 341M USD. He currently owns a petroleum, shipping, logistics and real estate companies. He has a lot going on with his life right now and he is younger that me! Damn, I would be very happy if I own just a gasoline station!

MRGSI - not sure why the stock price still below 4? Is it because the management is not taking advantage of its growth potential? I think it should emulate what Double Dragon (DD) is doing in terms of growing up its business. A bit of aggressiveness and couple of press releases would encourage investors to take a second look on how this company is doing. I think it is time for MRSGI not only to expand its leasable space but to start building up online infrastructure like Ayala.

I read one good analysis from one of the stock trader's facebook group. He thought that physical store such as Metro would eventually fold to online store. If we could have something similar to Amazon, then eventually people would shop online instead of going to a physical store. But that would be a couple of years from now to become a reality. But if trader's are going long for the stock, then, having a 10 or 20 years vision would definitely help.  

Maybe MRSGI need a little prodding right now.

DMCI - I should be getting 48 cents dividend from BPITrade. I checked and still not credited in my account. I hope next week I would see increase in my available balance :-).

DENR, Yoga, Face Reading and CA

I watched the CA hearing of DENR sec. Gina Lopez. It was entertaining to say the least. This is one of the CA hearings that I believe watched by many Filipinos. Gina Lopez is passionate about her environmental advocacy. She made her case in a passionate yet bordering to somehow unbelievable theory of environmental tourism. But who am I to judge her? She knows her stuffs. She has loads of people to help her understand the technicalities of managing the constitutional mandate of her office. She has people who works in a legal profession. Lawyers that one or another has vested interest be it bad or good.

Sometimes over simplifying things would not sit well to Lawyer like sen. Allan Cayetano and cong. Josephine Sato. They are expert in making simple things complicated in the guise of laws. They win by making you look stupid because you can only understand simple things. When you say social justice they will ask you to quote some articles in the constitution or they will beat you to pieces by saying words only 'Aristotle' would understand. But they would not be in politics if they cannot even confuse a Yoga practitioner, right?

I believed Senator Manny Pacquiao when he said the chance of Secretary Gina being confirm is 50-50. But that is a good thing for the Secretary, she only has to sway only 1 vote. Who knows Manny will make good of his promise to let Gina Lopez passed.

I don't know what mining firms are feeling right now. But based on the price of mining stocks, they seem to be seeing some light at the end of the tunnel. Most of them are green. Some even jump 6% from their price before the hearing. Are they seeing the end of the Yoga student? Maybe, but we would know today.

ABS-CBN Woes

If I remember it correctly, a TV personality told the viewers that 'it is better to have an abusive media rather that abusive government'. I might not agree with what he said but there is a time in our history that you would not pick the latter. 

ABS-CBN franchise would expire in 2020. Congress has enough time to discuss and decide whether to extend the franchise to another 25 years. There is a pending bill in congress (House Bill 4349) that was filed November of 2016 to give ABS a new breathe of life. But the fight with the President might be a big hurdle. Swindling is a serious crime specially if you are a company that are tasked to condemn it. It is much more serious when the President charged you as such.

No lawsuit has been filed yet, so, it is a battle of words for now. As the President is in the other end of the rope, surely, the effect would be felt by ABS investors. I think its share price would be going south for a couple of months. If I am holding ABS share I would be a little bit shaking right now. 

But I think, media giant like ABS would not just sit down and let the ball roll to them. They still have 3 years to bridge the gap with the President. They might get some tongue lashing, some shocking words from him but that would be ignorable compare to the the one thing they need from the President and the congress. 

It is really an exciting time for the country as the President is really bent on doing what he promised during the campaign. 

Logistics War

Nice article from Inquirer on why companies like MPI and SM are acquiring Logistics companies. MPI acquired Ace Logistics while SM acquire 35% of 2GO. The reason why its price shoots up.

Big firm tend to be on the mercy of Logistics firm when they are moving their goods, like delivering products to their customers or transferring assets from one location to another. Going into online retailing business would definitely require Logistics asset to handle shipping or air freight services. As Ayala acquired 49% of E-Commerce Zalora Philippines, they would probably be looking for a Logistics company right now. Or maybe they will create a Logistic business instead of buying one from the outside.

I believe next on these company's agenda is to look for people who really knows how to operate or have a broad experience managing complex logistic operations. That would be a crucial component to run a Logisctics company successfully. People like Tim Cook of Apple would be a good reference :-). Based on the book I read, he really excel in logistics operation. He's the one who Steve Jobs depend on to source different components of their products like IPhone components. Hopefully we have some Tim Cook here in our country.

PSE

As expected, index goes down due weak trading in anticipation of the 4 days of non-trading. I think there will still be some steam next week due to somehow positive outlook on our economy. We are still in good economic territory specially if the Government would stand on its promise to build needed infrastructures throughout the country. That would be a good days for companies like DMCI, SMC and MPI. Billions would be on the table for not so easy picking :-).

Speaking of DMCI, Supreme Court decided that construction of Torre De Manila was legal. I don't think the decision is final yet - complainants can still ask for reconsiderations.

2017 IPOs

Companies that are planning Initial Public Offering this year:

Wilcon Depot, Inc. (7.03 billion)
Listed on March 31, 2017

Chelsea Logistics Plans (8 billion)
Dennis Uy Shipping company

Xeleb Inc. (751.8 million)
Celebrity mobile gaming company of Xurpas

Expresspay, Inc. - XP (528 million)
Financial service aggregator. Possible listing date is on June 19, 2017

Eagle Cement (8 billion)

Cebu Landmasters, Inc. (3.8 billion)

Bermaz Auto Bhd. (1.24 billion)

Pure Energy Holdings (1.58 billion)

Audioway Median, Inc. (2.88 billion)

Ipad 2017 - Is it worth the money?

I have an Ipad which is almost 5 years old now. I bought my Ipad 4 five years ago after I let the Ipad 3 passed due to some not so nice reviews. It already has some fair share of bumps and bruises but still a dependable piece of technology. A bit lagging but the screen will never fail you. It has the retina display and a bright display with reflections, of course. I upgraded the OS to the latest version, i.e. 10.3 and I didn't notice any impact on the performance - really, quality and built is where Apple really flies. 5 years old Ipad is really due for replacement but if you can still hold on to it for a couple of years, I envy you :-). I still have my Ipad 1 which even my 5 year-old daughter hate to use. It is so heavy and Youtube is not not working anymore because Google already stopped the update. Both Ipad 1 and 4 are heavy as a brick. You will hate them when you hold something like Ipad Air 2.

As a trying hard technology guy - 5 years is quite a long time to hold a device like an Ipad. Two generations and now a new cheaper model with newer chip and screen that sucks? Maybe it's the right time to park my Ipad 4. So, I did! I bought the new 2017 Ipad and boy I thought I should stay with my old Ipad or went for the Ipad Air 2! Just kidding, cheap Ipad means screen that is not laminated, lots of reflection and an additional weight. The good side, higher battery capacity, higher screen brightness and newer chip (A9). If you have Ipad Air or Air 2 - no need to upgrade. Reading in an Ipad Air 2 is less eye straining due to less reflection. But if you are vain - go for 2017 model you will have an Ipad and a portable mirror, literally :-).

So... If you have a pre-Ipad Air model, 2017 is a good (not great) upgrade. Otherwise, stay away from this model. Unlike me, you still have a choice.

Netflix Philippines

To those who wants to try Netflix - let me give you my honest feedback of this streaming service (I am still in trial period up to 04May). Hopefully it will help you decide whether to subscribe to Netflix or try their 1 month free unlimited subscription.

If you are movie lover/watcher - this is really a good time for you. There are a lot of sites that offers 'legal' movie streaming, i.e. iFlix, hooq, blink and Netflix. I know some of you are doing the 'torrentz' downloads - no prejudice, I did that once shhhh...

I used my iTunes account to pay for the basic subscription which is 10 PHP higher (389 PHP) than if you subscribe directly from Netflix site. The reason I used my iTunes account is to have a single receipts and of course for my credit card security as well. Not that Netflix is not secured but that is me :-).

Most of the movies are old ones and Netflix originals. Maybe some of you want to watch them again, reminiscing the time when you dated your girlfriend(s) hehehe. I like the series like Grimm, 13 reasons and some forensic series. I bet the free one month would not be enough to watch all of them unless your are doing it in parallel universes.

I have 2mbps and I found that is enough to stream a movie or a tv series decently. Basic subscription gives you almost 720p picture quality which is very viewable. You can also download movies and tv series if your connection really sucks which is always the case when we talk of our Telcos/ISPs. I think new series like Iron Fist is not available for downloads - so you can only stream them and pray that your Telco/ISP will not fail you.

So far, I still enjoy the Netflix. I think there is no losing in trying the Netflix for a month - FREE of course.

Update (07May2017):

I continued the subscription. Movies are old ones but I can live with the TV series. Currently enjoying the Grimm, Forensic series, Nature documentaries and some good old movies. 

How high?

I am a bit amazed that PSEi gone up to 7,600+ points. I was able to unload some of my positions that went green. Still I have 2 reds, DMCI and MRSGI. I will be getting dividends from DMCI which will somehow offset some of my negatives. I guess I still have to hold DMCI for a little while... hopefully.

I think 'dutertenomics' had some effect on the market we have right now. If the government can sustain the growth forecast we can be seeing 8000 mark! I think infrastructure will really contribute to the PSEi points. I am seeing some major construction along commonwealth - which is a good sign.

Let's hope for the best this 2017 - goodluck to us! 

Is it really time to buy

I started buying NIKL a month ago as I believe this stock show a lot of promise. I like the fact that its price still holding at 6-ish level which is my buying price. I am sure this stock will fly when the market recover from its lumbering state. 

I am still holding my BLOOM (ouch!), COSCO and DMC. Banking for these stocks to help me live a good life when I retire (cross my fingers). 

With downing of Russian bomber by Turkish air force and inclusion of Chinese Yuan to the  major currency basket as approved by IMF - surely, the market is really in exciting state. I feel that the market still breathing 'dragon' as events affecting the market seems to be being controlled by economic countries not to become something that will really further weaken the market. Who knows, may be Mark Zukerberg giving away 99% of his wealth will help cheer up the sulking market!

Ang vs Gozon - The 1 Billion Questions

Now we know that Estafa is not only a crime of common people but also of Millionaires. I don't understand why would GMA not return the 1 billion to Ang. It's a huge sum of money and no one in his right mind would give it away. I would understand if it just a couple of millions - but billions? No way!

I think these two Millionaires should sit down to solve their differences. They are both well respected people on their respective industry and surely can come up with a win-win solution. 

Current Portfolio

Currently, I have COSCO, DMC, BLOOM and DD. Except DD, all of my other positions are in negative territory. It is expected as the market is not really doing so well. Europe has the Greek problem and China seems to be losing control of its economy. But the good thing of being in the stock market for a significant number of years is the experience gain during those years of market being in a roller coaster ride. I become more focus on my goal and not being bothered by stock market noise. I still buy when the price is within my buying price. But I am a little bit cautious now as market is a bit on the edge. 

As we know, election is fast approaching. Normally, stock market tend to be active since government use it to help win their candidates. Maybe, in a few months we can see a significant increase in PSE index.

Oh, one more thing... maybe the government can release DPWH funds during school vacation not during rainy season as road diggings causes traffic and floodings.

2015 Market Position

I still holding my BLOOM. The longest position I currently have. I bought COSCO with an average of 8-ish and DMC at 14-ish. So far, I have 3 greens and 1 red courtesy of COAL. I have around 7% fund allocated to COAL which I am really tempted to sell and re-position the fund to COSCO. But my 'blind' side still holding to a hope that someday it will fly and make me proud of myself.

The buy-back really pushed COSCO's share price. But even without buy-back, I will surely buy this stock as it has a bright future. Puregold is its main profit contributor. Of course, it earn from S&R, Liquid Gaz and its other companies. I think it is poised to follow the like of URC and other conglomerates. Lastly, the dividend that it is returning to investor really is an encouraging sign of being a good investment company - where my hard-earned money will grow.

DMC is a bit expensive at this point. But it is DMC! It gives dividend and has SCC to feel you a bit safer. Of course, Luneta will now become synonymous with DMC, right?

COAL? I don't have an idea what the hell is happening to this stock at this point. No news. No press release. Nothing. Feels like it really doesn't exist. Hopefully I can find some news that will cheer up the 'ant' in me.

PSEi at 8,400? I wish that the Analysts are right - eventhough I am a bit skeptical about it. I read we are few days from market crash! Damn!

Bull Market - Still?

It is still a bull market. My portfolio has only one red - COAL. This is what happen when you buy back a stock that you just sold for a profit. Fortunately - COAL is just 8 percent of my entire holding (ouch!).

DMC which I bought at 14 level is around 9% up, COSCO around 3% up and BLOOM around 20% up. I think I should stay for a bit longer to see my profit push further up North (or should I sell before the correction and buy again at the bottom? hhhmmm- risky, risky).

Xurpas is really an exciting stock. Its price is still jumping - and really jump high. Good luck to those who believed in this stock. Not my thing though - I am more of an Investor which piling up on experience and standing cool at the side.

We're Back

We're back at 7k but how long would it stay there?

The index plunge was scary but after a couple of days it's back to where it should belong (just for now). I sold FPH @91+ and bought DMC @ 14+. I also bought a couple of COAL - bad decision, as of today it's 1.09. 

I know a lot of Tsupiteros are smiling now. After seeing red on their portfolios. They're back in business. Gurus are now probably pumped up. Just be careful - do not just follow their recommendations. A some sort due diligence is a must. You know, 'been there done that' thing - or should I say, I was burned before.

I known DMC since its price is 4+. I lost the opportunity of having my 4 pesos turned into 78 pesos. Not this time. I surely will hold it a little longer - just what I am doing with my prized stock, BLOOM. Hopefully the Luneta controversy will not pull down its current valuation (just kidding).

Macbook Air for Java Development

I am a software Developer. My personal laptop is an Acer with i5 core processor and 4gb of RAM. It was a zip the first time I used it but after loads of Windows updates and installing couple of softwares I began to noticed that it started to 'crawl' - almost to the point that I wanted to throw it out of window or crumpled it and shoot it in a rubbish bin. In normal processing condition, my laptop used up almost 50% of RAM so it still has more than 50% available which I think still a lot and would not make the laptop a pain. But I guess it's not the memory but the problem running the OS made by Microsoft to the hardware made by Acer. Maybe the interface between the software and hardware is not optimised. Anyway, Acer startup process takes around 15-20 seconds and login around 30-40 seconds! A lot of time to spend to something productive!

Running an Eclipse, MySQL database and Tomcat server is a pain. I think the main problem is I am using DELL in the office with 8gb RAM and i7 processor and I am used to its speed. Using my Acer laptop, I can't do away of not comparing them. Waiting for 1 minute to be able to use my laptop is not something I can just ignore. I am not a patient person I guess.

So, I decided to try Apple laptop. On top of my list is a 13-inch Macbook Pro Retina as the specs really up to my liking. But the price is not within my budget - even the one with minimum specs. 64K is not really within my pocket can afford. So, the next in line is the Macbook Air 13-inch. I also checked the 11 inch model but the display is small and not recommended for software development. In terms of weight, there's just a small added weight in 13 inch model and really make a big difference in choosing between the two paper weight models.

There is already a refreshed Macbook Air 13-inch model available in the Philippines. I searched the Internet for Java Developer reviews and I was convinced that Macbook Air can handle memory and process hugging Java development environment. I bought 2013 model since there were no significant updates between this year's model and last year. Just a bump up processor and SSD interface. I was able to get one for 40K. It is brand new. Specs is 128gb with 4gb RAM. I wanted 8gb RAM but I can only buy that in Apple Philippines online store and it will take maximum of 1 month (according to those that I consulted). 8gb is a customised model and can only be bought from Apple store. So, my 4gb cannot be upgraded to 8gb as RAM is soldered directly to Macbook Air circuit board. The consolation of 2013 model I think is that SSD can be upgraded using third party hardware. Maybe I would try to upgrade my laptop in the future.

I still have my old Acer laptop which I use to watch rented movies since it already has HDMI interface (and Macbook Air doesn't!). It is also being use by my daughter to watch her favourite Youtube channels and play some flash games. One of its mouse pad button already gave up but I don't care since I already have my other 'favorite' laptop :-).

So far Macbook Air is living to its promises. Startup takes only around 3 seconds and login around 4 seconds! I installed Eclipse Luna and it opens for about 5 seconds! I wrote some sample code and running it is also a breeze! I think Macbook Air really uses its memory well and even if it used up its entire RAM - using SSD for memory paging is faster than using a hard disk. 

I also installed Spotify for my music streaming. The sound is far better from my aging Acer laptop (my Acer laptop uses Dolby surround sound). Although it is not deep in bass but for the laptop this thin I would not expect more than it could offer.

I also upgraded the OS to Maverick which added some bug fixes and new features. I installed Chrome browser which I rarely use now as Safari can do all of my browsing needs.

Battery - I think 2014 model has a better battery saving feature. But 2013 model can pass through a day's stay in Starbucks.

The only cons is when you are used to retina display or you are using a reading glass. The font is not as sharp as those in iPads. I read it is due to how Apple OS handle font. It retain the original font style. So, what you see is what the font will look like if you print it. My Acer laptop has lower display specs but look sharper due to how Windows handle font style. It changes the font to make it more sharper which is good if you are used to sharp displays.

My verdict - Macbook Air can be used for Java development. I would recommend 8gb RAM as sometimes 4gb is not enough when running multiple applications (but you don't lose too much in speed). But if you have budget for Retina Pro - Go for it instead!

17-Oct-2014:
I installed Cisco AnyConnect Secure Mobility Client for VPN connection to my office network and Microsoft Remote Desktop and they are working flawlessly. So when I work-from-home, I use my Macbook Air instead of my Acer laptop.

XURPAS IPO

I never thought I would see a home grown tech company like XURPAS. Just read it from abs-cbnnews.com site. It really caught my attention. The company is planning to go public to raise as much as 1.44 billion pesos. This much money means expansions and new multi-millionaires! Nice!

I am not sure if this company is in the same category as YEHEY - I hope not as YEHEY I think is a bust - a pufff. Lost some money to this stock. 'Have an axe to grind - hehehe.

I have not downloaded any XURPAS IOS or Android application. Maybe I will try in a few days to get a feel on why this company is earning almost 200 million just half of this year alone. Maybe they really have a good application and they are giving them quite a good return of investment.

XURPAS is a very encouraging success story. Started by a bunch of friends that was able to make 62,000 pesos grown to millions. I envy you guys. Maybe I will also make my 10,000 pesos to millions - someday...

I hope to see more Filipino tech companies to follow XURPAS. Filipinos are really very talented - aside from properly cook chicken and turn it to Mang Inasal, Chicken Joy, Chooks or Andoks - we also know how to venture in tech business and learning the right recipe. Let us support them as their success will surely be our country's success as well. Go XURPAS!

FPH Forward to 90

FPH is creeping slowly to the North. I started buying at 74-ish and now it is priced at 87.90 pesos. I set my buy price at below 80 pesos which means it is not a buy for me at its current price. Hopefully, it will go back to 80 in a few weeks - although I have a doubt. I really like this stock for it gave a good return last year which I know it will do the same this year as well.

I think Lopez stocks are not as explosive as other conglomerates. It is slow in moving up which should give you more time to accumulate. With FGEN and EDC still in profitable mode, I believe 100 pesos is not too far away. How about 100 pesos at the end of the year? Not yet, not yet.

Smart Manny

First, the slow internet. Then, FREE 30mb internet access from MVP. Why 30mb? Is it because internet is so slow that it will take 30% additional patience to wait for internet to serve a request? Is 30 because that what Smart, TNT and SUN subscriber's happiness worth? Is it 30mb because it will not be enough and subscribers will tend to pay for extended access? I can guess and guess, but 30mb is a good deal (at least for me). But I would love to know why it's 30?

Maybe 30mb can give you couple of emails, chats, some surfing and maybe upload some photos to a cloud drive. It is better than nothing. Having to have free internet access for 2 months is a kind of blessing to others. But why 2 months? What MVP will gain from this promo? Maybe this is just an experiment. They want to see if their subscribers will continue using internet even after the promo. 

How about Globe - will Ayala follow the lead? Will it be 30mb+? or better, up the limit to 2gb per day for post paid subscribers. Who knows? Maybe a little prodding will help.

Oh, MVP's company (no it's not his) own almost all of the important infrastructure of our country, like hospitals, tool roads, media, mining, telecoms, etc. If you take down the company our country will crumble. That's sad.

I Love my Country (but I almost left)

"I love my country but I hate my government" - I saw this in one of the facebook posts from Trader's forum. With rampant crimes involving cops coupled with corruptions perpetrated by local and national government officials; it is not too far fetch that people might take a drastic action and effect the law on their hands. Personally, it is becoming so frustrating. I am not sure if there is one in the government who really uphold the highest standard accorded to a public servant. From Sangguniang Kabataan (SK) up to the highest echelon of the government we can find people who is taking advantage of their position to steal public funds. They even go to church and talk the way a holy man would while they are plundering the money taxed by the government from poor and hardworking Filipinos. They even have the guts to accuse their kind of the same crime he himself is committing for he is convinced that people would not know the truth, only God would. He knows that he will be forgiven; just what Jesus did when he assured one of the Thieves that he will go to heaven with him. What he does'nt realise is, Jesus is not here to assure him of salvation.

There is an impunity of corruption in our country. We know it from the cavity of our common sense. We hear it, we see it and we experience it in one form or another. Corrupt Senators are treated like a Celebrity and not as a common Criminal. The sad thing is to see some people cried for them. They were blinded by hope that these evil are here to give them the garden of Eden. These Politicians are like Lions looking for Prey... looking for the weakest one. He makes them believe that he is the Savior; their Hero; their God. He knows what make them weak; he knows how to make them weak; he knows how to make them worship him - he has the formula. He learnt it from the bowel of corruption. He was taught by corrupt elders, the legendary plunderers, the Kublai Khans of the modern world. He even surpassed them. He is so evil that even the Devil himself would not want him enter his domain.

But Politicians are human. 
We have a choice. We can be evil or human. We are not victim of circumstances but our mistaken choices; choices we made in our everyday life. Plenty of choices are in front of us. Sometimes people need help to find and understand the better one if not the best. As Filipino, we have to be very specific of what we want. We have to condemn the crimes. We have to condemn the abusive Government officials. We have to take care of our future. 

What should we do next?
Our only effective weapon is our vote and vigilance. We must NOT vote for the people who wear gloves to hide blood on their hands; for people who talk peace while holding a gun in one hand; for people who think he is pro poor because he is once a poor; for people who promise heaven and earth while the only truth is he is the only one living in heaven and the rest in plundered earth; for people who say he is righteous while living in unrighteous way; and for people who made politics as their very source of income and family business.

We have the choice; we have the power to make our lives better; we must not waste every opportunities that comes our way.