PSEi Correction

Traders are now cashing in on their gains after PSE punched through 8K. That's include me :-). Sold 50% of my DMC stocks which gained some coffee money but I already received the 48 cents dividend. Waiting for this stock to go back to 10 Pesos level. 

The government did not accept the EU grant of almost 280 million Euro. I am not sure if that is a good idea as the money can be used to fund basic services which will benefit the poor. But if the government can generate more money by going after big tax evaders, then I don't think we will need help from other country.

Reading 'My Family's Slave' by Alex Tizon. A Pulitzer prize-winning journalist and the author of Big Little Man: In Search of My Asian Self. The story revolve around the family's house helper (they call her Lola) and his family. I think most of Filipinos can relate to this story as most of us knows a house helper or have one. But I think Alex family treatment of 'Lola' is more of a slave rather that part of the family. Some commented that somehow the author contributed to this treatment which I agree. If you what to read more about this story, you can check this site - https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/06/lolas-story/524490/.

8K and Beyond...

Is the sell in May and go away not true anymore? Are you seeing 8K in the horizon? Is the PSE behaving like an unpredictable mother nature? Are we going to see diversion to normal cycle where the weak hands prevail in May? Should we stay instead of going away? Surely we will know next week.

There a lot of going on in terms of economic development. There are a lot of infrastructure building along major highways in Metro Manila. Although, airport construction in Davao might not push through but most of the earmarked projects seems to be going as planned. 

Some people who helped the president during election is getting some good share of the opportunities. Dennis Uy gets provisional license to build resort casino in Cebu worth 341M USD. He currently owns a petroleum, shipping, logistics and real estate companies. He has a lot going on with his life right now and he is younger that me! Damn, I would be very happy if I own just a gasoline station!

MRGSI - not sure why the stock price still below 4? Is it because the management is not taking advantage of its growth potential? I think it should emulate what Double Dragon (DD) is doing in terms of growing up its business. A bit of aggressiveness and couple of press releases would encourage investors to take a second look on how this company is doing. I think it is time for MRSGI not only to expand its leasable space but to start building up online infrastructure like Ayala.

I read one good analysis from one of the stock trader's facebook group. He thought that physical store such as Metro would eventually fold to online store. If we could have something similar to Amazon, then eventually people would shop online instead of going to a physical store. But that would be a couple of years from now to become a reality. But if trader's are going long for the stock, then, having a 10 or 20 years vision would definitely help.  

Maybe MRSGI need a little prodding right now.

DMCI - I should be getting 48 cents dividend from BPITrade. I checked and still not credited in my account. I hope next week I would see increase in my available balance :-).

DENR, Yoga, Face Reading and CA

I watched the CA hearing of DENR sec. Gina Lopez. It was entertaining to say the least. This is one of the CA hearings that I believe watched by many Filipinos. Gina Lopez is passionate about her environmental advocacy. She made her case in a passionate yet bordering to somehow unbelievable theory of environmental tourism. But who am I to judge her? She knows her stuffs. She has loads of people to help her understand the technicalities of managing the constitutional mandate of her office. She has people who works in a legal profession. Lawyers that one or another has vested interest be it bad or good.

Sometimes over simplifying things would not sit well to Lawyer like sen. Allan Cayetano and cong. Josephine Sato. They are expert in making simple things complicated in the guise of laws. They win by making you look stupid because you can only understand simple things. When you say social justice they will ask you to quote some articles in the constitution or they will beat you to pieces by saying words only 'Aristotle' would understand. But they would not be in politics if they cannot even confuse a Yoga practitioner, right?

I believed Senator Manny Pacquiao when he said the chance of Secretary Gina being confirm is 50-50. But that is a good thing for the Secretary, she only has to sway only 1 vote. Who knows Manny will make good of his promise to let Gina Lopez passed.

I don't know what mining firms are feeling right now. But based on the price of mining stocks, they seem to be seeing some light at the end of the tunnel. Most of them are green. Some even jump 6% from their price before the hearing. Are they seeing the end of the Yoga student? Maybe, but we would know today.

ABS-CBN Woes

If I remember it correctly, a TV personality told the viewers that 'it is better to have an abusive media rather that abusive government'. I might not agree with what he said but there is a time in our history that you would not pick the latter. 

ABS-CBN franchise would expire in 2020. Congress has enough time to discuss and decide whether to extend the franchise to another 25 years. There is a pending bill in congress (House Bill 4349) that was filed November of 2016 to give ABS a new breathe of life. But the fight with the President might be a big hurdle. Swindling is a serious crime specially if you are a company that are tasked to condemn it. It is much more serious when the President charged you as such.

No lawsuit has been filed yet, so, it is a battle of words for now. As the President is in the other end of the rope, surely, the effect would be felt by ABS investors. I think its share price would be going south for a couple of months. If I am holding ABS share I would be a little bit shaking right now. 

But I think, media giant like ABS would not just sit down and let the ball roll to them. They still have 3 years to bridge the gap with the President. They might get some tongue lashing, some shocking words from him but that would be ignorable compare to the the one thing they need from the President and the congress. 

It is really an exciting time for the country as the President is really bent on doing what he promised during the campaign. 

Logistics War

Nice article from Inquirer on why companies like MPI and SM are acquiring Logistics companies. MPI acquired Ace Logistics while SM acquire 35% of 2GO. The reason why its price shoots up.

Big firm tend to be on the mercy of Logistics firm when they are moving their goods, like delivering products to their customers or transferring assets from one location to another. Going into online retailing business would definitely require Logistics asset to handle shipping or air freight services. As Ayala acquired 49% of E-Commerce Zalora Philippines, they would probably be looking for a Logistics company right now. Or maybe they will create a Logistic business instead of buying one from the outside.

I believe next on these company's agenda is to look for people who really knows how to operate or have a broad experience managing complex logistic operations. That would be a crucial component to run a Logisctics company successfully. People like Tim Cook of Apple would be a good reference :-). Based on the book I read, he really excel in logistics operation. He's the one who Steve Jobs depend on to source different components of their products like IPhone components. Hopefully we have some Tim Cook here in our country.

PSE

As expected, index goes down due weak trading in anticipation of the 4 days of non-trading. I think there will still be some steam next week due to somehow positive outlook on our economy. We are still in good economic territory specially if the Government would stand on its promise to build needed infrastructures throughout the country. That would be a good days for companies like DMCI, SMC and MPI. Billions would be on the table for not so easy picking :-).

Speaking of DMCI, Supreme Court decided that construction of Torre De Manila was legal. I don't think the decision is final yet - complainants can still ask for reconsiderations.

2017 IPOs

Companies that are planning Initial Public Offering this year:

Wilcon Depot, Inc. (7.03 billion)
Listed on March 31, 2017

Chelsea Logistics Plans (8 billion)
Dennis Uy Shipping company

Xeleb Inc. (751.8 million)
Celebrity mobile gaming company of Xurpas

Expresspay, Inc. - XP (528 million)
Financial service aggregator. Possible listing date is on June 19, 2017

Eagle Cement (8 billion)

Cebu Landmasters, Inc. (3.8 billion)

Bermaz Auto Bhd. (1.24 billion)

Pure Energy Holdings (1.58 billion)

Audioway Median, Inc. (2.88 billion)

Ipad 2017 - Is it worth the money?

I have an Ipad which is almost 5 years old now. I bought my Ipad 4 five years ago after I let the Ipad 3 passed due to some not so nice reviews. It already has some fair share of bumps and bruises but still a dependable piece of technology. A bit lagging but the screen will never fail you. It has the retina display and a bright display with reflections, of course. I upgraded the OS to the latest version, i.e. 10.3 and I didn't notice any impact on the performance - really, quality and built is where Apple really flies. 5 years old Ipad is really due for replacement but if you can still hold on to it for a couple of years, I envy you :-). I still have my Ipad 1 which even my 5 year-old daughter hate to use. It is so heavy and Youtube is not not working anymore because Google already stopped the update. Both Ipad 1 and 4 are heavy as a brick. You will hate them when you hold something like Ipad Air 2.

As a trying hard technology guy - 5 years is quite a long time to hold a device like an Ipad. Two generations and now a new cheaper model with newer chip and screen that sucks? Maybe it's the right time to park my Ipad 4. So, I did! I bought the new 2017 Ipad and boy I thought I should stay with my old Ipad or went for the Ipad Air 2! Just kidding, cheap Ipad means screen that is not laminated, lots of reflection and an additional weight. The good side, higher battery capacity, higher screen brightness and newer chip (A9). If you have Ipad Air or Air 2 - no need to upgrade. Reading in an Ipad Air 2 is less eye straining due to less reflection. But if you are vain - go for 2017 model you will have an Ipad and a portable mirror, literally :-).

So... If you have a pre-Ipad Air model, 2017 is a good (not great) upgrade. Otherwise, stay away from this model. Unlike me, you still have a choice.

Netflix Philippines

To those who wants to try Netflix - let me give you my honest feedback of this streaming service (I am still in trial period up to 04May). Hopefully it will help you decide whether to subscribe to Netflix or try their 1 month free unlimited subscription.

If you are movie lover/watcher - this is really a good time for you. There are a lot of sites that offers 'legal' movie streaming, i.e. iFlix, hooq, blink and Netflix. I know some of you are doing the 'torrentz' downloads - no prejudice, I did that once shhhh...

I used my iTunes account to pay for the basic subscription which is 10 PHP higher (389 PHP) than if you subscribe directly from Netflix site. The reason I used my iTunes account is to have a single receipts and of course for my credit card security as well. Not that Netflix is not secured but that is me :-).

Most of the movies are old ones and Netflix originals. Maybe some of you want to watch them again, reminiscing the time when you dated your girlfriend(s) hehehe. I like the series like Grimm, 13 reasons and some forensic series. I bet the free one month would not be enough to watch all of them unless your are doing it in parallel universes.

I have 2mbps and I found that is enough to stream a movie or a tv series decently. Basic subscription gives you almost 720p picture quality which is very viewable. You can also download movies and tv series if your connection really sucks which is always the case when we talk of our Telcos/ISPs. I think new series like Iron Fist is not available for downloads - so you can only stream them and pray that your Telco/ISP will not fail you.

So far, I still enjoy the Netflix. I think there is no losing in trying the Netflix for a month - FREE of course.

Update (07May2017):

I continued the subscription. Movies are old ones but I can live with the TV series. Currently enjoying the Grimm, Forensic series, Nature documentaries and some good old movies. 

How high?

I am a bit amazed that PSEi gone up to 7,600+ points. I was able to unload some of my positions that went green. Still I have 2 reds, DMCI and MRSGI. I will be getting dividends from DMCI which will somehow offset some of my negatives. I guess I still have to hold DMCI for a little while... hopefully.

I think 'dutertenomics' had some effect on the market we have right now. If the government can sustain the growth forecast we can be seeing 8000 mark! I think infrastructure will really contribute to the PSEi points. I am seeing some major construction along commonwealth - which is a good sign.

Let's hope for the best this 2017 - goodluck to us!